統計模型顯示了有利社會環境的價值

資料來源:聯合國愛滋規劃署,2021年1月19日

 

聯合國愛滋病規劃署提出了到2025年的一系列大膽、雄心勃勃但可以實現的愛滋病毒目標。模型顯示,如果促進有利的社會環境之目標能夠實現,就可以避免440, 000例與愛滋相關的死亡,並將可預防260萬額外的愛滋病毒新增感染。相關模型還顯示,具有更有利的社會和法律環境之國家:「定義為是一個處在性別平等,不受污名和歧視,經由取消懲罰性法律讓人們更能夠獲得正義,以及更廣泛的發展部門會採取聯合行動情況下的社會」,會與愛滋病毒服務之覆蓋面以及愛滋病毒之衝擊影響間具有更強的正相關性。

 

例如,在過去十年中,在最後一次高風險性行為中男性使用保險套的水平是相同的情況下,具有社會有利環境的國家與社會環境較差的國家相比,其愛滋病毒的發生率下降幅度更大。

 

於接受抗反轉錄病毒治療不同的水平中,社會環境最有利的國家與社會環境最不理想的國家相比時,其愛滋病毒感染者中與愛滋病相關的死亡率較低。

 

 

 

 

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Modelling shows the value of favourable societal environments

UNAIDS/ 19 JANUARY 2021

 

UNAIDS has proposed a new set of bold, ambitious but achievable HIV targets for 2025. Modelling has shown that if the targets promoting favourable societal environments are met, 440 000 AIDS-related deaths would be averted and 2.6 million additional new HIV infections would be prevented. Related modelling has also shown that countries with more enabling societal and legal environments—defined as societies that are gender-equal, free from stigma and discrimination, and with improved access to justice where punitive laws have been lifted and where joint action is taken with the broader development sector—had stronger positive correlations between HIV service coverage and HIV impacts.   

 

For example, countries with better societal enabling environments are associated with bigger declines in HIV incidence over the past 10 years than countries with worse enabling environments having the same level of condom use by men at the last high-risk sex encounter.

 

 

Lower levels of AIDS-related mortality among people living with HIV occur in the countries with the most favourable societal environments, compared to countries with the least favourable societal environments at varying levels of antiretroviral therapy.